Spatiotemporal ETAS Model with a Renewal Main-Shock Arrival Process

Abstract We propose a spatiotemporal point process model that enhances the classical Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. This is achieved with introduction of renewal main-shock arrival and we call this extension ETAS (RETAS) modification similar in spirit to Hawkes (RHawkes) but conditional intensity supports spatial component. It empowers reset upon main-shocks. allows for heavier clustering main-shocks than introduce likelihood evaluation algorithm parameter estimation provide novel procedure evaluate fitted model's goodness-of-fit (GOF) based on sequential application Rosenblatt transformation. A simulation RETAS outlined used validate numerical performance GOF test procedure. illustrate proposed methods various earthquake catalogues around world each distinctly different seismic activity. These demonstrate additional flexibility comparison emphasizes potential superior modelling forecasting seismicity.